This post originally appeared in the Stuff section of the Fort Worth Weekly's website. To consume it there : https://www.fwweekly.com/2017/08/02/trading-games/ A baseball trading deadline revolves around seeing the future. A team
acquiring proven talent attempts to peer three months hence and
occasionally as much as 15 months. A franchise adding prospects needs to
see further, sometimes as much as four years or more. Ironically,
a word we use when talking about a baseball club’s ability to try to
predict its near future is “window.” A winning club’s collection of
talent is said to have a period of time when it’s a viable title
contender before those players age and leave due to free agency,
retirement, or cost-benefit analysis.
Heading into this season,
the Texas Rangers returned the core of consecutive division
title-winning teams led by the 2015 American League Manager of the Year.
They added fan favorite and power threat Mike Napoli, plus TCU product
Andrew Cashner. They had reason to expect continued progress from young
players like Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, and Joey Gallo.
Their
window of opportunity seemed open. The 2017 Rangers have shown promising
bursts, including May’s 10-game win streak and another five-gamer in
June against first-place teams Washington and Houston. Overall, however,
they have won fewer games than they have lost. Young players have not
taken necessary steps forward, though the 23-year-old Gallo’s OPS north
of .830 shows progress. Veterans have mostly underperformed. Cole Hamels
missed time with an oblique strain. The relief pitching has
inexplicably beached itself, as bullpens sometimes do.
This
season’s window of contention, then, has likely rattled closed for the
Rangers, and their trade deadline activity reflected it.
July 31 represents a
key date in the baseball calendar, because it is the last date teams can trade
players without sending them through waivers. From now through the end of the
season, a team wishing to trade a player must put him through revocable
waivers, a process that allows any team to claim him. At that point, the player’s
current club must either pull him off waivers and keep him, trade him to the
claiming team, or let the claimant take the player and his salary. Each player
can only go through the process once a season, so it can stymie a lot of August
trades. Teams therefore generally decide by July 31 whether their windows to
win include the current campaign. This July, the Rangers traded three established
players for younger ones unlikely to help them win games this season.
Catcher Jonathan Lucroy went to the Rockies for a player to be named
later; relief pitcher Jeremy Jeffress moved to Milwaukee for minor
league right-hander Tayler Scott; and starting pitcher Yu Darvish headed
west to the Los Angeles Dodgers for prospects Willie Calhoun, A.J.
Alexy, and Brendon Davis.
The returns for Lucroy and Jeffress will
not have a substantial impact on any Rangers window. With the former
posting a career-low batting average and the latter’s ERA at a
career-high 5.31 at the time of the trade, the Rangers had to sell low.
Baseball-reference.com rated both at below replacement level in 2017,
implying that any average player would have performed better. One could
argue that moving them might have made sense no matter where you found
yourself in the standings, especially given that Colorado now has to pay
a portion of Lucroy’s $5-plus million salary.
Darvish, however,
likely offers substantial present value to any team. Baseball Reference
estimated his WAR at 2.8, higher than any other Ranger. He has struck
out more than a batter per inning and offers a bewildering selection of
pitches. Banister declared that losing his team’s only All-Star
selection doesn’t mean his group won’t have a chance to contend. He
should say that, because his job entails motivating the men he manages,
and players view the possibility of October baseball as an important
enticement. Also, Banister could be right. We don’t know because we
haven’t played the games yet. Other contenders could suffer slumps or
injuries, and his roster could improve its performance. Darvish’s
departure makes it unlikely, however, that the Rangers’ window of
contention will extend into 2017. The Rangers fan must ask that if
2017 is not the team’s window, when is? The team’s current run dates to
2010, with Texas playing beyond the standard 162 regular season games
every year since then other than an injury-crushed 2014. Its success
rested on a strong minor league system fortified by prescient trades,
draft choices, and international signings. The club supplemented its
internal promotions with free agent signings and by using its farm depth
to trade for the likes of Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Mike Adams.
If
General Manager Jon Daniels polishes the glass on his crystal ball and
spies a chance to contend next season, it means he sees enough tools
either currently on the roster, ready to be promoted from the minor
leagues, or likely to be acquired in the offseason. Perhaps internal
evaluations indicate they can expect improved performance from current
guys. They might also look at signing free agents. Darvish will become
available again, if they want to make a run at him. Last year, the
Yankees effectively rented Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs before re-signing
him in the offseason. The Cubbies did the same the year before in
bringing Jason Hammel back from Oakland after dealing him there
mid-season.
Darvish makes $11 million this year and can expect to
command more than double that next year, barring injury. Texas has
$61.5 million in combined commitments to three thirtysomething players
next year (Hamels, Adrián Beltré, and Shin-soo Choo) and the 29-year-old
Elvis Andrus. Could they afford to re-up with Darvish and, since they
would need to improve on what they had this season even with the big
right-hander, also add another big-ticket free agent like Wade Davis or
J.D. Martinez?
In a sport without a hard salary cap, the Rangers’
revenues have an impact on payroll acquisitions. The way ticket sales
cycles go, the club will likely have less money to work with for next
year’s budget. A non-playoff season means less money coming in during
the all-important winter season and group ticket sales period. We can
also expect limited sponsor revenue-producing additions to the current
ballpark (à la the Hyundai Club or left field video board of recent
years) with a new stadium on the horizon.
In terms of internal
help, it’s not out of the question that Calhoun or Ronald Guzman could
emerge from AAA to impact the big club next year. Perhaps Nick Martinez
will surface as a reliable starter. The Rangers’ farm system is not what
it once was, though, weakened in part by the trades for Ryan Dempster,
Matt Garza, and others, made to extend the current competitive window.
This year’s trade deadline deals won’t hurt, but they won’t move the
needle there, either.
If the Rangers’ next window isn’t 2018, when
is it? To get back to winning its division consistently, and earning
its best chance at succeeding in the crapshoot that is the postseason,
Texas must overcome its A.L. West foes. Most of the teams have remained
bunched in the middle of the standings this year. Various services rank
the minor league systems of the Rangers, Angels, and Mariners in the
lower third of baseball. The A’s get placed a bit higher, and their own
deadline trade of Sonny Gray improved their system further, but unless
they get a new facility and improve their ability to boost payroll,
Oakland isn’t a long-term threat.
The young and talented Astros
present problems, however. In addition to running away with the division
in 2017, they possess one of the major leagues’ top development
pipelines. How can the Rangers match up with them in 2019 and beyond? In
2008 and 2009, Daniels and his staff, along with then-president Nolan
Ryan, brilliantly identified who in their current organization could
help them win and which players they’d need to acquire. They thought
they might surprise in 2009 (and they almost did), and they knew
they would in 2010. That’s their challenge now — to figure out when
they’ll be good again and who needs to still be here when it happens.
It’s not an easy process, because everyone wants to win now, but the
organization needs, above all, to be realistic about it.
Daniels’
office, like many on the fourth floor of Globe Life Park in Arlington’s
center field building, has a window overlooking the diamond. Every so
often, workers walk the ballpark balconies cleaning the glass. Rangers
fans hope they do a good job, because for JD and his staff, it’s all
about clear vision and windows. Rush Olson has spent two decades directing creative efforts for sports teams and broadcasters. He currently creates ad campaigns, television programs, and related creative projects for sports entities through Rush Olson Creative & Sports, Mint Farm Films, and FourNine Productions.
As baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline approaches, we find
ourselves asking important questions. Are we buyers? Are we sellers? Are
we standpatters?
Teams really try not to be standpatters, and not just because it’s
actually not a word. You either want to get better for this year so you
can win the World Series now or improve for subsequent years so you can
win the World Series then.
Should the Rangers be sellers this year, unloading veterans in return
for young players who need seasoning but have high upsides? Or should
they buy talent at the price of their own farm system depth? I’m a
flip-flopper, because while the hometown team is not currently in
playoff position, part of me thinks they could sneak into a wild card
slot, and once in the postseason teams can get hot. Darvish and Hamels
could pitch lights out and Beltre could rake and that
new-bullpen-piece-we-acquired-because-we-decided-we-were-buyers could
dominate.
Or
the team might give up prospects for proven talent and tank anyway.
Both scenarios have happened to clubs before. So if I can’t predict the
future, I decided I would look at the past. Perhaps you’ll remember
some of these in-season exchanges.
On May 30, 1972, that first Texas team traded Norm McRae to the
Tigers for Dalton Jones. McRae never threw another pitch in the big
leagues and Jones hit .159 for the Rangers that year in what would turn
out to be the final 166 plate appearances of his Major League career.
Jones was the older player, so we can characterize the Rangers as
buyers. However, they were 16-23 when they made the deal and would lose
100 games, so they should have been sellers. In fact, Rangers manager
Ted Williams knew Jones from his time with the Red Sox and I’ll surmise that had something to do with the club’s first-ever “deadline deal.”
In those days, the non-waiver deadline was earlier, June 15, and only
two teams per league made the postseason. When the deadline moved to
July 30 in 1986 and the playoffs expanded in 1994 and 2012, mid-season
trade activity increased. The stakes have also risen as prospects have
become an increasingly valued commodity. Deals get made after the
deadline, too, although they are more difficult because other teams can
block the trade by claiming a player off waivers (with the risk that
they may have to take on his salary if his current club decides to
unload it).
The guys in Arlington have made some solid deals as buyers. On July
9, 2010, they sent Matt Lawson, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Justin
Smoak to the Mariners for Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe. Do they reach their
first World Series without Lee? Probably not, so it’s hard to say any
deal had a bigger impact than that one. None of the other players in the
deal really did a lot until Smoak’s breakout season this year for
Toronto.
On July 31, 2015, Jorge Alfaro, Alec Asher, Jerad Eickhoff, Matt
Harrison, Jake Thompson and Nick Williams went to the Philadelphia
Phillies for Jake Diekman and Cole Hamels. Hamels and Diekman have been
key contributors to two playoff teams, so no matter how good the young
players they gave up become, it’ll be hard to count this as something
other than a win.
Perhaps the best deal as a buyer actually worked out more like a
seller’s deal for Texas. On July 28, 2006 Julian Cordero, Francisco
Cordero, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix went to the Brewers in exchange for
veteran Carlos Lee and stalled prospect Nelson Cruz. Coco became
Milwaukee’s closer and Lee hit ok for the Rangers in an ultimately
fruitless ’06 playoff pursuit. But the deal’s “insurance,” Cruz, became
perhaps the most impactful postseason player in Rangers history.
As sellers, one deal that’s still paying dividends is the July 31,
2007 one in which Ron Mahay and Mark Teixeira went to the Atlanta
Braves. Texas received Beau Jones, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod
Saltalamacchia, and their current starting shortstop, Elvis Andrus. They
also picked up David Murphy from the Red Sox that day and he now
contributes as a broadcaster after posting some good years on the field
for winning Rangers teams. photo credit: Brian Gagnon/Texas Rangers
The July 19, 1985 trade of an aging Buddy Bell to the Reds for a
player to be named later and Duane Walker turned out well for the
Rangers when future closer Jeff Russell became the PTBNL four days
hence.
They don’t all work out as well. Robb Nen might been Russell’s heir
as closer had he not gone to the Marlins with Kurt Miller for Cris
Carpenter (not to be confused with future Rangers nemesis Chris
Carpenter) on July 17, 1993. Nen saved more than 300 games for the
Marlins and Giants.
One deal that drives one crazy is the 2011 Chris Davis/Tommy Hunter
for Koji Uehara trade with the Baltimore Orioles. Davis became a star,
which would have been fine if the Rangers had gotten what they needed
from the trade. While Texas did go to the World Series that year, Uehara
inexplicably had the highest ERA of his career pitching three months
for the Rangers and didn’t make the World Series roster. Two years later
he became ALCS MVP for the Red Sox and allowed no runs in five World
Series appearances. Rangers fans may recall a need for a shutdown
reliever in a certain Game 6.
Fans might feel a similar frustration about the August 19, 1983 trade
that sent Rick Honeycutt to the Dodgers for Dave Stewart and Ricky
Wright. Stewart’s talent never emerged with Texas, but he became a star
for the Athletics teams the Rangers chased in the late 1980s.
Another tough one came in 2001 as Ruben Mateo went to the Cincinnati
Reds for young pitcher Rob Bell. Bell never realized his high upside,
but the teenager the Reds convinced Texas to add to the deal became All-Star infielder/DH Edwin Encarnación.
On June 29, 1989, the Rangers traded Tack Wilson and Scott May to the
Milwaukee Brewers for Todd Simmons and LaVel Freeman. None of those
players ever played in the bigs for their new team. And had that been it
for 1989, the year would not have been included in this roundup.
Unfortunately, however, there was another trade that summer. Exactly a
month later, Texas picked up a veteran bat they thought might propel
them to their first postseason berth, plus a serviceable utility
infielder. Harold Baines and Fred Manrique did not get the Rangers
across the threshold. However, Wilson Alvarez, Scott Fletcher and Sammy
Sosa went to the Chicago White Sox in the swap, making this likely the
most notorious trade in Rangers history.
As sellers on July 11, 2003, Texas executed a superb exchange in
sending Ugueth Urbina to the Florida Marlins for Adrian Gonzalez, Will
Smith, and Ryan Snare. And it would have been a perfect example of the
vet winning a ring and the young player developing into a potential Hall
of Famer for his new team, except that Gonzalez had his superb career
with the Padres, Red Sox, and Dodgers after later deals.
More than one player, including Saltalamacchia, has been both
acquired and traded at separate deadlines. Ryan Dempster went to the
Marlins on August 8, 1996 for veteran right-hander John Burkett, which
helped Texas to its first division title. On July 31, 2012, Texas
brought Dempster back at the cost of Christian Villanueva and Kyle
Hendricks. Dempster posted a 5.09 ERA in 12 starts with Texas, but
Hendricks helped push his new team, the Cubs, to a World Series win last
fall.
The guy who went with Dempster to Florida came back to the Rangers on
August 12, 1997 as the Rangers were sellers. Ed Vosberg went to the
Marlins, who were on the way to their first championship. Rick Helling
returned to the club that had drafted him and led the starting staff of
two Rangers postseason teams.
In 1998, the club picked up another one of those twice-dealt guys,
Esteban Loaiza, along with Todd Stottlemyre and Royce Clayton in
deadline deals. Those players helped push Texas to a second A.L. West
title.
Who’s the best player ever acquired by Texas in an in-season deal?
You could make the case for Cruz, Hamels, Lee, or for Michael Young, who
came to Texas with Darwin Cubillan on July 19, 2000 for Loaiza. The
Rangers also picked up future Hall of Fame curveballer Bert Blyleven in a
1976 deal. But this is, in fact, a trick question. The best player
Texas ever acquired was . . . Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez. By the time of his
August 19, 2009 re-acquisition from the Astros, he was no longer the
perennial Gold Glover and offensive force of his first swing through
Arlington. But he’s Pudge and I expect to get no argument from Rangers
fans about this selection.
So now you have an overview of past Rangers deadline deals. If I left
out your favorite Ruben Sierra or Ed Kirkpatrick trade, I apologize.
Perhaps in a few years they’ll be included when I write about how we
just reacquired Justin Smoak or Nick Williams.
Rush Olson has spent two decades directing creative efforts for
sports teams and broadcasters. He currently creates ad campaigns,
television programs, and related creative projects for sports entities
through Rush Olson Creative & Sports and FourNine Productions.
