“Wins
Above Replacement;” "Pass-Completion Percentage;” “Defensive Win Shares;”
The sports world seems to revolve around measurement even more than it did when
some of us devoured the numbers on the backs of baseball cards. One key metric
you may not find on the back of a card or in the spreadsheets of analysts : “Successful Season.” How do we define such
a thing?
Having a “Successful
Season” matters a lot to sports marketers.
It’s necessarily imprecise, because it exists in the minds of
supporters. It’s important, though, because their vibe about the previous season’s
accomplishments fuels season ticket and sponsorship purchases for the following
year’s campaign.
Some seasons make
such evaluation simple. If a baseball team wins the World Series, or a football
team the Champions League, or another kind of football team the Super Bowl,
they have clearly experienced success. Only one team per sport earns those
distinctions, however, and lots more need their fans to believe that the
just-completed season sets them up for a satisfactory campaign-to-come.
Leagues (and entire
sports) further their own success when they maximize the number of member teams
fans consider to have had “good years.” It therefore follows that more than the
one franchise that wins the year’s biggest trophy needs the ability to claim a
satisfactory result.
Does winning more
games than you lose constitute success? If you had a poor won-loss record the
year before, it might. Improvement sells.
Most U.S. sports
have playoffs, and a season that finishes in the end-of-season tournament
generally creates a perception of success. The exception can lie with teams who
have made the postseason a number of years running without winning big, as happened
with the Atlanta Braves.(1)
It helps if you
can claim a title, even if it isn’t the ultimate one. In American arena sports,
if you win a division or conference title, you get to raise a banner the next
year.
In European
sports like soccer, you get lots of chances to win silverware. You might win a continent-wide competition,
one of a couple of domestic cups, or the domestic league itself.
In some U.S.
sports with player drafts, faring extremely poorly can counterintuitively lead
to a positive evaluation. If you “win” the opportunity to draft a Shaquille
O’Neal or Mario Lemieux(2), the resulting expectations of immediate
improvement can drive ticket sales. They can also fuel allegations of unsavory
conduct, as in the cases of Patrick Ewing(3) and Hakeem Olajuwon(4).
In sports with
relegation, the poorest teams have no path to positive spin. They drop to a lower
league the following year. The overall effect of the system may prove positive,
however, since an equal number of teams sell their fans the triumph of
promotion and visits from Barcelonas or Chelseas the following season. Some
number of teams who narrowly avoided relegation, especially recently promoted
ones, can often declare a positive result to their year.
Qualifying for
European play in itself often prompts supporters to have happy feelings about a
season. Soccer clubs who fare well enough to earn high-profile weeknight games
in the Champions League or Europa League have something special to sell to
prospective ticket buyers.
 |
| The Europa League logo adorns Olympic Stadium ahead of a Lazio/Tottenham clash |
College sports
have several ways to declare success besides a national or conference title.
Numerically speaking, advancing to a Final Four, Frozen Four, Elite 8, or Sweet
Sixteen plays well. For many smaller schools, simply making it to a national
tournament becomes a transcendent achievement. Bowl games have always seemed a
genius way of setting up tons of schools to claim seasonal success. Time will
tell if recent national football playoffs have removed the luster from the
historically useful designation “bowl team."
Departure of key
players can blunt the marketing impact of a strong collegiate season.
Graduation rates, no matter how good, don’t seem to move a lot of tickets.
If your team
hasn’t met one of the above criteria for in-season success, can you still have
a successful offseason? Absent spending big money on free agents or transfers,
one has to seek positive stories to tell. Customer-facing employees should know
about young players who could break out and what the official company line is
about scenarios under which a team could improve. Using social media to seem
earnest about improvement and offering stories about individual players doing
good things on- and off-field can help a brand’s image after a down year.
One can also take
a page from minor league teams, where sales tend to revolve more around fan
experience than winning. An emphasis on group tickets and community involvement
becomes paramount.
Governing bodies
have designed the likes of salary caps, international free agent restrictions,
and Financial Fair Play to help engender the competitive balance that maximizes
a given team’s chances of plausibly claiming that success awaits in the coming
season.
As the saying
goes, “everybody loves a winner.” The more leagues can ensure fans perceive
that everyone IS a winner, the more success they will have.
Rush Olson has spent two decades directing creative
efforts for sports teams and broadcasters. He currently creates ad campaigns
and related creative projects for sports entities through his company, Rush
Olson Creative & Sports.
RushOlson.com
Footnotes
(1) Demetrius Bell “Braves daily news
digest 10/12: Attendance hits 10-year low,” Talking Chop.
http://www.talkingchop.com/2014/10/12/6964075/braves-daily-news-digest-10-12-attendance-hits-10-year-low
(accessed April 3, 2015)
(2) Tom McMillan “Lemieux Gives Pens
Sign of Hope,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. http://penguins.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=721633
(accessed April 3, 2015)
(3) “Draft Conspiracy Delivers Ewing
to Knicks?,” Lost Lettermen. http://www.lostlettermen.com/article/video-1985-nba-lottery-bent-envelope-ewing-knicks
(accessed April 3, 2015)
(4) Dannie “Coin Flip to Lottery: Did
the Rockets Tank to Get Olajuwon?,” The Recliner GM Sports Blog. https://reclinergm.wordpress.com/2008/01/19/coin-flip-to-lottery-did-the-rockets-tank-to-get-olajuwon/
(accessed April
3, 2015)
